全球环境灾害预测

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根据最近四、五十年全球自然灾害和人为灾害发生的历史，如台风、洪水、地震、沙化、瘟疫、突发疾病、各种爆炸和无限开采等等灾害爆发频率不断增加，爆发严重程度也不断提高。

因此我们预测未来十至二十年全球环境灾害爆发的次数频率和严重程度将以三至五倍的速度增加和三至五倍的程度提高。

如果未来五至十年内全球人类不从根本上改变经济发展模式，不停止对地球环境的破坏，那么二十年以后全球环境灾害将以几十倍的速度增加和几十倍程度提高。

那么人类的生存和发展将受到严重的打击和倒退。

“卡特里那”飓风爆发给美国民众和经济造成了多少损失和灾难。 美国这样世界头号经济强国面对这次飓风灾难也无能为力，世界其他国家面对这样面对这种灾难该怎么办？   如果我们回顾最近十年在全球各地频繁发生的各种自然灾害和人为灾害， 全球人类是否可以清醒：我们对地球环境的破坏已经到了地球无法忍受的地步。 每年快速增加和增强的灾害已经告诉我们：自然灾害是对人类破坏的一种报复，因为人类已经彻底打破了地球自然循环的平衡环境。

虽然几十年来有无数有识之士在不断的呼吁政府和企业要保护地球自然环境，也有少数政府和企业采取了一些有效的政策和措施来改进对自然环境的保护措施。 但是为了眼前的经济利用、为了自己的经济利益，大多数国家和企业还是采取了以牺牲和破坏环境的方法来换取眼前的经济增长。 无限制开采和挖掘，无限制污染排放、各国攀比竞争的武器爆炸试验、无节制的极端消费追求、日益扩大的太空发射和无限扩大的动物宰杀等等，无一不在天天加速对地球环境的破坏。 如果这种边破坏边发展的经济模式不彻底改变，追求极端消费模式不彻底改变，人类对地球环境的破坏就不可能减少，自然环境灾害和人为环境灾害必然大幅增加，灾害严重程度也必然加深。

作为中国公民去年11月10日我们在全国各大网站论坛发出倡议“保护自然环境，减少环境污染，反对过度消费”。

作为地球村村民今天我们向全球倡议“改变经济发展方式，停止破坏地球，保护地球就是保护自己”。

我们希望各国政府领导和企业富豪们能够深刻认识问题的严重性，并且采取积极的行动改变这种局面。 因为只有各国掌握经济和社会发展大权阶层带头从自己做起改变消费和经济发展方式。 人类才能从根本上改变对地球环境的破坏，自然灾害和人为灾害才有可能减少。 人类才能保护地球，从而保护自己。

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2005年9月6日

September 6, 2005

Forecast Disaster of Global Environment

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Based on global history of recent 40 to 50 years of nature disasters and human disasters such as storms, earthquake, flood, disease and serious bombing and so on, we forecast that:

1.       The numbers and frequency and serious extent of global nature disasters will increase at 3 to 5 times in future 10 and to 20 years.

2.       The numbers and frequency and serious extent of global nature disasters will increase at 30 or 50 times after 20 years, if we human being cannot change our recent way of economy development and do not stop destroy nature environment within 10 years.

So human being’s survive and development will be affected by serious disasters in the future.

Katrina storm has brought huge damages and disasters to American people.  America the first strongest nation on economy cannot prevent such storm, how other nations can do facing such nature disaster?

If we recall carefully those disasters so frequently happened in recent years, we human being should wake up: our earth cannot continue to accept being destroyed by human being. More and more serious disasters every year have told us: Nature can retaliate human being due to we destroy the balance of cycle environment of the earth.

Although many people have been appeal to government to protect nature environment for long years, few governments have taken some active policy and measures to protect nature environment, however facing own benefits against environment protection, facing present benefits against future benefits of human being, most of governments and enterprises select own benefits and present benefits to destroy nature environment. For instance unlimited exploitation, unlimited pollution let being, nuclear weapon test, unlimited killing animal, extreme consume and so on. Everyday human being is speeding up destroying the earth. If we cannot change the way of economy development radically, we cannot reduce the destroying of nature environment. Nature disaster will increase of course.

As Chinese citizen on November 10,2004 we launched one propose “Protect nature environment, Reduce environment pollution and Oppose extreme consume” in many forums of web sites.

As member of earth village today we launch one suggestion to government leaders and billionaires of global nations to take actions to protect nature environment, only government leaders and billionaires have powers to change the way of economy development, if they are willing to do from theirselves, there is hope to improve nature environment. Otherwise there is no possibility to solve the problem.

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